2006年7月31日全球金融市场周报 美国

United States 美国

US stocks had a mixed week as anxiety over Middle-East violence and concerns about corporate earnings and economic growth balanced hopes that the Fed may soon stop raising interest rates. The Dow Jones ended the week 1.2% higher but the technology-biased NASDAQ slipped 0.8% to its lowest level in 14 months.

Uncertainty over high oil prices and the escalating Israeli/Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon meant trading remained cautious all week. Domestically, however, the focus was on second-quarter corporate earnings reports and the outlook for interest rates.

On the earnings front, the news was mixed, particularly in the technology sector where strong profits from iPod maker, Apple, and a sharp rise in earnings from mobile phone company, Motorola, were ultimately outweighed by reports of a drop in profits from chipmaker, Intel, and a profits warning from Dell Computer.

In the wider market, investors were cheered by a strong sales report from McDonalds and better than expected earnings from the likes of Coca Cola and Merrill Lynch, although a sales warning from Target, the discount store chain, and weaker than expected earnings from Citigroup helped curb investor enthusiasm.

Confidence was lifted mid-week by soothing comments from Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, in his twice-yearly testimony to on monetary policy to the US Senate. The Fed's chief policy maker told Senators that he expected inflation to moderate in coming quarters, sparking hopes on the financial markets that the central bank was close to a pause in its interest rate rising cycle.

We still expect rates to be raised to 5.5% (from the current 5.25%) at the next Fed meeting in early August. This could well be the peak, but much depends on economic data, including this week's key second-quarter GDP data which investors and the Fed will be watching closely for any signs of weakness.

上周美股表现参差，中东局势紧张，企业盈利和经济增长又存在隐忧，抵销了有关联储局快将停止加息的乐观憧憬。周内道琼斯指数高收 1.2%，但偏重科技股的纳斯达克指数却下滑0.8%，创14个月新低。油价居高不下，以色列与真主党在黎巴嫩的冲突恶化，上周市场气氛一直紧张。但美国国内的焦点却集中于第二季公司业绩报告和息口前景。

公司业绩荣辱互见，科技股尤甚， iPod制造商

苹果计算机（Apple）溢利丰厚，流动电话公司摩托罗拉（Motorola）盈利激增，但最终都因为芯片制造商英特尔（Intel）和戴尔计算机（Dell Computer）发表溢利警告而被忽略。整体大市方面，

麦当劳（McDonalds）销售强劲，

可口可乐（Coca Cola）和美林证券（Merrill Lynch）等公司业绩超越预期，都令投资者感到鼓舞，但折扣商店Target发出销售额警告，花旗集团（Citigroup）业绩又未达预期，亦压抑投资意欲。

联储局局长伯南克向美国参议院作证时言论温和，刺激上周中段市场信心。伯南克向参议院表示未来数季通胀料将纾缓，令金融市场憧憬联储局快将暂停加息。预料联储局仍会在 8月初议息时决定加息至5.5厘。息口甚可能在该水平见顶，但主要仍系于经济数据，包括本周发表的第二季本地生产总值数据，投资者与联储局都会密切留意任何增长偏软的迹象。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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